My Recent Reflection: “Dare to Lose, But Fear to Win”

A sentiment that touched me most in this week was “Dare to Lose but Fear to Win”.

When we was caught by the bear, we just didn’t learn to stop loss but add more positions into it until the token was zeroed; When we earned some profit, we just stopped profit way too early, then, saw the project rocketed. This is what I called “Dare to lose but fear to win” — We are dauntless upon losing money but scared upon earning profit.

We recently saw Bitcoin surging to a new ATH of $43,000, up over 10 times compared to the lows of $3,000 on March 12, 2020. Many are scared now — will the correction be coming soon? will the huge drop imminent? Is the bear not far away?

I’m scared too. In crypto circle for over 3 years I’ve never withness a bitcoin of $40,000. Unblievable! From $10,000 on Oct, 2020 to the current $40,000, bitcoin quadrupled in just 3 months, leaving people stunned by the remarkable surge!

It is just so unreal!

Correction is a sure thing. In the past three month BTC droped over 10% for several times but resumed soon and broken through new ATH continuously.

Price? hard to predict. It is also pointless to predict it. The modern investment theory tells us that do not try to predict the accurate price. Instead, we shall set a profit-stop price upon entering a position and sell it in batches upon reaching the price.

Indeed, some have started to stop profit. Stopping profit at any time is correct. I know that some crypto friends around me who earned several million dollars indeed start to sell some positions. It is understandable.

All indicators, like funding rate, sentiment index, etc, are all invalid at the moment. Based on these indicators, bitcoin would be collapsed long time ago. The reason maybe the the huge amount of real money from institutions flowing into the crypto market, buying bitcoin particularly. Hence, the usually useful indicators are all become invalid!

Bitcoin, in this round, is not very much correlated with the retailers. Those who have the bids speak louder! No matter how retailers with no positions chanting the coming of the bears, it’s just useless. The $40,000 price tag is the fact.

According to price change discipline, following the bitcoin spike, ETH and best DeFi coins will relay the surge. What investors should do is to build a portfolio, hold it and let the profit run.

But how to build the portfolio? Many complains their altcoins lag behind bitcoin. This is it! From a higher time frame the chance that altcoins outperforming bitcoin is slimmer. Here I’ll share Mable’s (director of Multicoin) investment experience to you:

“Our hedging fund will be used differently based on different markets. In crypto world, our position for bitcoin will not be less than 60%. Why? BTC is the cash for us! So, if you want to outperform bitcoin, only is it possible that your position is over 50%.”

In vain in wholly pursuing the high yield of altcoins but discarding the basic earnings of bitcoin and ethereum. If no guarantee of profit β, how can we earn the profit of α. In a long term, 99% users are failed to outperform bitcoin.

Where is the bull proceeded now? Good question. Indeed we are in the bull market at the moment, and I think the progress bar is between 20% — 30%. Where will bitcoin be positioned? $50,000 shall not be the problem and $100,000 price by the end of 2021 is predicted by most investors.

At the very start of the new year saw the remarkable ATH of $40,000. No resistance is above and the price surge is dominated by the institutions. Where will be bitcoin landed will be completely determined by the institutions!

Coinbase’s visit on App Store was just ranked 30 places; pension fund is waiting to enter and total market cap of crypto was just surpassed 1 trillion dollar. Though hard to believe the spike of 40,000 bitcoin at the year’s start, I’m convinced it’s only the start of the bull!

Why you are scared? because you lose so much in bear market. You are timided; you have loss your imagination! You are only dare to lose but fear to win!

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